Quick answer: DC Market Insights gives investors and lenders an independent view of whether a data center asset, platform or developer will earn what the model says. We work for private equity, infrastructure funds, pension and sovereign wealth funds, banks and private credit funds, and we test the things that decide returns: demand, power timing, tenant concentration, pricing at renewal, new supply and the route to exit.
Investors have never put more capital behind data center revenue forecasts. Data center M&A reached a record USD 73 billion in 2024, up from the previous peak of USD 52 billion in 2022, and private equity has accounted for 80% to 90% of deal value every year since 2021, according to Synergy Research Group. The deals keep getting larger: in July 2026 a consortium of the AI Infrastructure Partnership, MGX and BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners closed the acquisition of Aligned Data Centers at an enterprise value of about USD 40 billion, covering 51 campuses and more than 6.4 GW of operational and planned capacity, according to Aligned Data Centers.
Lenders are now as exposed as equity. JLL’s 2026 Global Data Center Outlook estimates that the capacity planned to 2030 will require USD 3 trillion of total investment and roughly USD 870 billion of new debt financing, as reported by Data Center Dynamics. At the same time, the International Energy Agency warns that around 20% of planned data center projects could be delayed by grid constraints. Strong demand and late power can sit side by side in the same asset, and the model has to price both.
DC Market Insights is the data center practice of Credence Research, a research and consulting firm founded in 2015 with 200+ analysts and consultants and 450+ consulting projects a year. Our investor work draws on the same models behind our 519 published data center reports, so every assumption in your model is tested against a number we can show you.
- Who we work with: private equity, infrastructure funds, pension and sovereign wealth funds, banks, private credit funds and their advisers
- What we test: demand, power timing, tenant concentration, pricing at renewal, new supply and exit
- What you get: a written report, an Excel model with open formulas and a findings session with your deal or credit team
Which investors and lenders do we work with?
We work with five kinds of capital provider, and each one reads the same asset through a different risk. The evidence is the same; the questions and the downside case change with the investor.
| Investor type | Main question | Where we focus |
|---|---|---|
| Private equity | Will the growth case survive a slower year and still support the exit? | Pipeline, pricing at renewal, exit buyers |
| Infrastructure funds | Is the contracted revenue as safe and long-dated as it looks? | Tenant quality, contract terms, power security |
| Pension and sovereign wealth funds | Will the platform hold its value over a long hold period? | Long-run demand, obsolescence, regulation |
| Banks | Can the borrower service debt if lease-up or power is late? | Lease-up curve, coverage in the downside case |
| Private credit funds | What protects the loan if the business plan slips? | Construction and power risk, asset resale value |
Private equity
Funds buying a platform or a developer need to know whether the growth case holds when the market softens. We test the pipeline of contracted and uncontracted megawatts, the price the platform can hold when leases come up for renewal and how much competing supply will reach the same metros before the planned exit. We also test who would buy the asset at exit and what they will pay for.
Infrastructure funds
Infrastructure investors value long, contracted, inflation-linked revenue. We test whether the contracts are as strong as they look: tenant credit, renewal rights, escalators, power pass-through terms and the share of revenue tied to one or two customers. We also test whether the power that underpins the contracts is secured by agreement or only by expectation.
Pension and sovereign wealth funds
Long-term owners care about what the asset will be worth well beyond the next exit. We test long-run demand, the risk that a building designed for today’s rack density becomes hard to let, and rule changes on energy, water and planning that could alter its value.
Banks
Lenders financing construction or acquisition need a downside case they can defend to a credit committee. We size a realistic lease-up curve for the market, the tenant mix that supports it and the effect on coverage if power or tenants arrive late.
Private credit funds
Private credit often funds development, holdco loans and bridges ahead of stabilisation. We test construction and power timing, the strength of preleasing, and what the asset would be worth to another operator if the borrower’s plan failed.
Our clients include Bain Capital, JPMorgan Chase, Mizuho Gulf, Orix and Mitsui, and advisory firms such as McKinsey & Company, Kane CDD and Altman Solon.
What questions do investors ask about a data center asset?
Investors ask six questions, and each one ends in a number that goes into the deal or credit model. These are the questions our work is built around.
Will the asset earn what the model says?
We answer it by rebuilding the revenue line from the market up, in a base, upside and downside case, and comparing it line by line with the seller’s or sponsor’s model.
When will the power really arrive?
Power now decides the timetable in most core markets. CBRE reports that power constraints are extending completion timelines in North America, where 7,481 MW was under construction in the first half of 2026, according to CBRE. We check the grid connection the site holds, its queue position, the substation and transmission work it depends on and any on-site supply, and we produce a dated power curve with a confidence grade. A signed lease without a firm grid date is an option, not revenue.
How concentrated are the tenants?
Hyperscale operators now account for 48% of worldwide data center capacity, and almost 60% of that capacity is in own-built, owned facilities with the balance in leased facilities, according to Synergy Research Group. That makes a handful of cloud and AI companies the largest tenants in the market. A building leased to one hyperscaler can be an excellent credit and a concentrated risk at the same time. We review the share of revenue by customer, contract terms, renewal history and each anchor tenant’s own expansion plans in the market, and we show which share of revenue renews on its own and which share depends on winning new customers.
What will pricing look like at renewal?
Rents are rising in tight markets: CBRE reports that average asking rents in North America rose for every major deployment size in the first half of 2026, led by an 8.3% increase for users seeking 3 MW to 10 MW. The question for an investor is whether those rents hold when today’s leases renew. We benchmark wholesale and retail pricing in USD per kW per month, contract length and escalators against comparable facilities, and we produce a price band for new leases and renewals with the assumptions laid out line by line.
How much new supply will compete with the asset?
Tight markets attract new building. JLL expects nearly 100 GW of new data center capacity to be added globally by 2030, doubling global capacity, according to the same Data Center Dynamics report. We map operating, under-construction and planned capacity by operator in the asset’s metro and in the nearest alternative markets, and we show the supply and demand balance by year, so you can see when vacancy is likely to rise again.
What does the exit look like?
JLL reports that global data center M&A has represented more than USD 300 billion of activity in the last five years, so the pool of buyers is deep today. We test whether the asset will still fit what buyers want at the exit date: location, power, density, tenant mix and remaining contract life. Where the exit is a listing, an independent market view matters even more. Our team prepared the India Beer and Malt Spirit Equipment Market 2018 to 2032 study, cited in the draft red herring prospectus filed by SpectraA Technology Solutions Limited on 21 March 2026 (read the case study). That work was outside data centers, but the discipline is the same.
Why is outside evidence worth more in this cycle?
Because prices are being set in the tightest market the sector has seen, and the capital behind them is larger than ever. Three conditions make independent evidence on demand, supply and price more valuable now.
The market is tight today, and models assume it stays tight
Vacancy in primary data center markets fell to 6.6% globally in Q1 2025, down 2.1 percentage points in a year, according to CBRE. In North America, vacancy across primary markets held at 1.4% in the first half of 2026, with Northern Virginia at 0.2%. JLL puts global occupancy at 97%. A model built in these conditions can easily assume tight supply lasts the whole hold period; we show when that stops being safe.
More of the pipeline is leased before it is built
CBRE reports that more than 80% of capacity under construction in North America is already preleased, up from 74.3% a year earlier, and JLL reports that 77% of the global construction pipeline is pre-committed to tenants. Preleasing reduces letting risk but moves it to delivery: the asset earns only if it is built and energised on time.
The deals and the debt are getting larger
Large transactions set the price for the rest of the market. Blackstone and CPP Investments agreed to acquire AirTrunk at an enterprise value of over A$24 billion, for a platform with more than 800 MW committed to customers, according to the Blackstone announcement. With roughly USD 870 billion of new debt needed by 2030 on JLL’s estimate, lenders will carry a growing share of construction and power risk. When valuations and debt rise together, the cost of a wrong demand or power assumption rises with them.
What services do we provide to investors and lenders?
We provide three core services to investors and lenders, each built around a decision: whether to buy or lend, how big the opportunity is, and how the asset stands against its competitors. Most investor engagements use one of them as the main scope and draw on the other two.
Commercial due diligence
Commercial due diligence is an independent test of whether a facility, platform or developer can earn the revenue a deal assumes. We cover seven questions: demand, power, supply, price, tenants, technical fit and regulation, and we rebuild the revenue line in three cases. It is the service most investors and lenders use, from a red-flag review early in a process to a full report for an investment or credit committee. Read more about commercial due diligence.
Market sizing and forecasting
Market sizing gives a fund a defensible view of the opportunity before a process starts: market size today, growth and the leading segments and countries. Funds use it to screen markets and targets, build a platform thesis and check the market chapter in an information memorandum. Read more about market sizing.
Competitive intelligence
Competitive intelligence shows where a target or portfolio company stands against its peers: capacity, pipeline, pricing, customers and partnerships, market by market. Investors use it before a deal to test a target’s position, and after a deal to track the competitors and new supply that could erode the investment case. Read more about competitive intelligence.
| Service | When investors use it | Main output |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial due diligence | Before signing a purchase or a loan | Revenue model in three cases, red-flag findings |
| Market sizing and forecasting | Thesis building, screening, pre-process | Market size and forecast by segment and country |
| Competitive intelligence | Pre-deal positioning, portfolio monitoring | Benchmarks of the target against peers and new supply |
How does an investor engagement work?
It runs in five steps, from a scoping call to a findings session with your deal or credit team, and each step produces something you can use before the next one starts.
- Scope the questions. A call with the deal or credit team to agree which questions matter most for this asset, the cases to model and the deadline. You receive a written scope and a quote.
- Read the data room. Where there is one, our analysts review the seller’s or sponsor’s model, customer contracts, power agreements and technical reports, and list every assumption that needs an outside check.
- Test against the market. We run each assumption against our market models, pricing evidence and supply map, and speak to people who know the market: operators, brokers, utilities, equipment suppliers and tenants.
- Build the case. We rebuild the revenue line in a base, upside and downside case, each traced to its inputs, and flag the red items that could change the price, the structure or the loan terms.
- Present and stand behind it. A findings session with your team and, if needed, with the investment committee, credit committee or co-lenders. Follow-up questions are answered after delivery.
What you receive
| Deliverable | Format | Used for |
|---|---|---|
| Red-flag memo | Short PDF | Go or no-go before the full spend |
| Commercial report | PDF with charts and maps | Investment committee, credit committee, co-investors |
| Market and revenue model | Excel, open formulas | Your own deal or credit model |
| Supply, pricing and tenant data pack | Excel with sources | Valuation, covenants and benchmarking |
| Findings session | Video call or on site | Questions from the deal or credit team |
Which red flags should investors and lenders look for?
The red flags that matter are the ones that change when revenue starts or how long it lasts. These are the items we test first for every investor and lender:
- Power dated by hope, not by contract. A grid date that rests on a utility letter of intent rather than a signed connection agreement, or that depends on a substation nobody has started to build.
- One tenant, one renewal. A large share of revenue tied to a single customer whose lease ends inside the hold or loan period, with no sign of that customer’s own expansion in the market.
- Pricing set in the tightest year. Rents benchmarked against record-low vacancy, while new supply in the same metro is already under construction.
- Preleasing that hides delivery risk. A pipeline described as fully let, where the contracts allow the tenant to walk away or cut the price if the building is late.
- Halls that cannot host the next generation of racks. Space marketed as AI-ready without the floor loading, water or power density that liquid cooling needs, and no budget for the upgrade.
- Rules that are about to move. Planning limits, water permits or connection moratoria under review in the jurisdiction, with no allowance for delay in the model.
Each red flag we find comes with the evidence behind it and the change it makes to the base case, so the deal or credit team can take it to the price, the structure, the covenants or the conditions to close.
DC Exclusive: what does our model library add to an investment decision?
It adds 519 ready market models covering the full data center value chain, so an investor starts from a tested baseline instead of a blank sheet. Each model holds market size from 2020, a 2025 base year and a forecast to 2035, split by segment, region and country, which means history, base and forecast can be checked against each other before a single deal assumption is tested.
The library is organised in five layers, the same structure we use for all our research:
| Layer | What it covers | Why it matters to an investor |
|---|---|---|
| DC Core | Colocation, hyperscale, edge and modular facilities | Demand and pricing for the asset itself |
| Upstream | Power, cooling, construction and equipment | Build cost, lead times and upgrade capex |
| Downstream | Cloud, AI compute, interconnection and hosting | Where tenant demand comes from |
| Ecosystem | DCIM, security, maintenance and finance | Operating cost and service revenue |
| Extended | Adjacent markets in their data center form | Second-order demand and exit buyers |
Models come in global, regional and country editions, so a fund looking at a single metro can see how that country sits inside its region and the world. For example, our Iberia Data Center Market report puts that market at USD 11.53 billion in 2025, a baseline for any asset in Spain or Portugal. Our UK Data Center Thermal Management Market report values UK cooling spend at USD 993.9 million in 2025, rising to USD 3,398.9 million by 2035, with London and Slough holding more than 65% of the market, which helps price upgrade capex for a London-area asset.
Three proprietary datasets are in development and will feed future investor work: a Capacity Tracker (live and pipeline MW by country, city and operator), a Colocation Price Index (USD per kW per month by market) and a Deal Tracker (M&A, funding, land and power deals).
How do we make sure the numbers hold up?
We build every market figure two ways and only use it when the two agree, with the same method in a deal as in a published report.
- Bottom-up: we count the market from the supply side: installed and planned capacity by operator, contract values, operator revenue and pricing, metro by metro.
- Top-down: we work down from the larger market, such as total IT and cloud spend, data center electricity use or construction spend, and the share that each segment takes. The IEA’s estimate that data center electricity use will rise from 415 TWh in 2024 to around 945 TWh by 2030 is one of the outer bounds that a bottom-up demand forecast must fit inside.
- Reconcile: where the two results differ, we find out why and fix the input that is wrong, rather than averaging the gap away.
- Three cases, always: base, upside and downside, each traced to the inputs that drive it, so a credit committee can see exactly what has to go wrong for coverage to fail.
- Time frame: every model carries history from 2020, a 2025 base year and a forecast to 2035, so an investor can see how the market has moved before trusting where it is going.
- Independent review: an editor who did not build the model checks that every growth rate matches its endpoints, every share adds up and every figure traces to a source before release.
Who leads our work for investors and lenders?
A small senior team leads every investor engagement, with our wider bench of 200+ analysts behind them.
- Priyanka Mor, Senior Consultant. Priyanka leads cross-border commercial due diligence, market entry feasibility, TAM, SAM and SOM work and M&A screening engagements, and is our principal methodology reviewer. She has more than 15 years in market research and consulting.
- Amit Jain, Senior Consultant, ICT & Emerging Technologies. Amit heads our ICT consulting and syndicated research practice and has more than 20 years in technology market research. He leads work on data center infrastructure, cloud and telecom, including market sizing, vendor benchmarking and commercial due diligence.
- Deepti Agrawal, Senior Editor, Research. Deepti is the final quality gate for our reports and consulting work. She checks models, growth rates and company profiles for consistency, and owns our house style.
Which DC Market Insights research supports investors and lenders?
Every engagement links back to the published reports for the asset’s market, so the deal or credit team can see the baseline before we adjust it. Useful starting points:
- Iberia Data Center Market for demand in Spain and Portugal
- UK Data Center Thermal Management Market for cooling capex and upgrade cost
- OCP Rack Market, valued at USD 1.63 billion in 2025 and forecast to reach USD 13.34 billion by 2035, for hyperscale equipment demand
- The full data center research library, organised in five layers
Related pages: commercial due diligence, market sizing, competitive intelligence and the full list of consulting services.
Frequently asked questions
What does data center consulting for investors cost?
Fees are quoted per engagement and depend on the number of assets and markets, the depth of tenant and power review and the deal deadline; you receive a written quote after the scoping call.
Can you work to a deal timetable?
Yes. The timetable is agreed at the scoping call to fit your process, and a red-flag memo is delivered before the full report so the deal team can decide early whether to continue.
Can lenders rely on the report?
Reports are written to be read by investment and credit committees, with every figure traced to its source. Who may rely on the report, including lenders and co-investors, is agreed in the engagement letter before work starts.
How is your work different from technical due diligence?
We test the revenue: demand, power timing, price, competition and tenants. Technical advisers test the building: structure, mechanical and electrical systems and condition. We cover technical fit only as far as it changes revenue and upgrade capex, and we work alongside your engineering, legal and financial advisers.
What happens if the seller’s model and yours disagree?
We show where the two differ, which assumption drives each gap and the evidence on both sides, so your team can decide which view to price. A disagreement backed by evidence is often the most useful finding in the report, because it is the point a deal team can take to the price or the structure.
Which markets can you cover?
Our 519 published reports cover global, regional and country markets across the data center value chain, and our client base spans Europe (45%), the Americas (30%), Asia Pacific (13%) and the Middle East and Africa (12%).
How do we start?
Send us the asset, the market and your deal deadline through the form below. A senior consultant will reply within one business day to arrange a scoping call.
Sources
- Synergy Research Group: data center M&A deals broke all records in 2024 (13 January 2025)
- Aligned Data Centers: AIP, MGX and BlackRock’s GIP close acquisition of Aligned Data Centers (21 July 2026)
- Data Center Dynamics: “Not a bubble”: USD 3 trillion data center investment supercycle expected by 2030, JLL (7 January 2026)
- International Energy Agency: Energy and AI, executive summary (2025)
- CBRE: North American data center demand continues to outpace supply despite record construction activity (27 August 2026)
- Synergy Research Group: hyperscale operators to account for 67% of all data center capacity by 2031 (7 April 2026)
- CBRE: Global Data Center Trends 2025 press release (24 June 2025)
- Blackstone: agreement to acquire AirTrunk in an A$24B transaction (Business Wire) (4 September 2024)
- SpectraA Technology Solutions Limited: IPO market validation case study